January 10th 2018
There is a big difference between being right about something and being right about when something will happen.
Sadly, to profit from being right you either have to get the timing right or you have to hang in there until the timing is right. The latter can be incredibly painful and most investors don’t have the stomach for it.
This is particularly true of short positions. It is not enough to know that something is going to blow up. You have to know how, why, and when.
On long positions, like venture capital investments, you do have the ability to buy time but it requires a lot of conviction and patience and the carrying costs can negatively impact the returns.
Which is why the best venture capital investments are always the right idea at the right time by the right team.
I remember watching streaming video over a 14.4 modem in 1997. Ten years later YouTube nailed that opportunity. Right place. Right time.
A lot of venture capital investors ask “what can go right” instead of “what can go wrong” and that is exactly the right mindset in VC investing. But you also have to ask “when will it happen and why?”